Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
